looking at scott rasmussen tracking poll. this is the first poll based entirely on interviews after the debate. mitt romney had a modest debate bounce. the question is will it be a blip or lasting change. >> gretchen: look at the university of colorado forecasting model. this is interesting. this is the only model that looks at the electoral college and you need those votes to be president. 330, of the 538 map are going to mitt romney. this is the same out fit in august or september or august 22nd prediction they said the same thing. but romney picked up five more points. >> steve: what they do. they look at economics of what is going on nationally and local and state level . they look at wealth and they look at unemployment and all sorts of stuff. they predict mitt romney will win these states. new mexico and that is new since they updated it and, north carolina and win virginia ohio new hampshire colorado, wisconsin and ohio and florida and barack will win michigan and nevada. >> gretchen: i don't think that romney will win